Computerized complex system event assessment, projection and control

ABSTRACT

Systems, methods and computer readable media for computerized event risk assessment, event projection and control of events associated with complex systems are disclosed. The assessment can include using statistically processed survey data to determine risk category performance. Event projection can be based on data retrieved from a past events database. Control can include real-time control of subsystems within the complex system and providing reports and visualizations. The visualizations can include profile graphs, bar graphs, dashboards and hyperbolic mapping.

FIELD OF THE INVENTION

Embodiments relate generally to computerized management of eventsassociated with a complex system and, more particularly, to systems,methods and computer readable media for computerized complex systemevent risk assessment, event projection and event response/management.

BACKGROUND

Traditional scientific inquiry techniques that rely on principles suchas linearity, reductionism, certainty of measurement, reversibility andinduction may be ineffective in the assessment, projection and controlof complex events, systems and situations such as natural disasters,terrorist attacks, outbreaks of disease and industrial accidents.Accordingly, a system or method that incorporates a practicalapplication of one or more traditional scientific inquiry techniques ortheories may suffer from a limited ability to assess, predict and/orcontrol complex events.

A need for a scientifically derived alternative to the continuedreliance on conventional techniques for managing risk in complex systemsor events was recognized. A robust approach to managing risk in complexevents or systems may require integration of quantitative scientificinformation with qualitative human social processes in a way thatprovides a more effective management technique. Because of the largequantities of data typically associated with complex events or systems,a computerized method, system and computer readable medium are practicaloptions for implementing a specific application of a complex eventmanagement method. By combining computer information processingtechnology with the complex event risk management techniques describedherein, a tool that assists humans in the effective management ofcomplex events, situations and systems can be provided. Embodiments wereconceived in view of the above-mentioned limitations of traditionalscientific inquiry techniques and applications, among other things.

SUMMARY

One or more embodiments can include a computer-based system for managingrisk in a complex system. The computer-based system has a processorcoupled to a data storage device and an interface adapted to exchangedata with another device. The data storage device can have softwareinstructions stored on it. The software instructions being adapted to beexecuted by the processor and to cause the processor to performoperations. The operations include retrieving historical event data,risk event categories and performance criteria from the data storagedevice, and determining event paths for each event that presents a risk.The operations also include weighting critical nodes for each eventpath, and retrieving standards from the data storage device. Theoperations further include generating online surveys by triangulatingstandards and issuing online surveys electronically using the processorto transmit the surveys to external systems via a computer networkcoupled to the interface. The operations can also include receivingonline survey responses electronically and scoring the responses, usingthe processor, to generate performance reports including an assessmentof risk potential for each risk event category.

A computerized method of complex system event management can includetriangulating and weighting risk event categories based on historicalevent data retrieved from a computer data storage, and determining andweighting performance criteria relevant to managing events for anorganization. The method can also include constructing an electronicstandards library based on standards retrieved from the computer datastorage, and validating and testing performance criteria. The method canfurther include assessing client performance, projecting future eventsand generating event management response recommendations.

BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

FIG. 1 is a diagram of a computerized event assessment, projection andcontrol system in accordance with the present disclosure.

FIG. 2 is a diagram of a computerized event assessment, projection andcontrol system in accordance with the present disclosure.

FIG. 3 is a chart of an exemplary method for computerized eventassessment, projection and control system in accordance with the presentdisclosure.

FIG. 4 is a chart of an exemplary method for computerized eventassessment, projection and control system in accordance with the presentdisclosure.

FIG. 5 is a chart showing a method of triangulating and weighting riskevent categories in accordance with the present disclosure.

FIG. 6 is a chart showing a method of determining and weightingperformance criteria in accordance with the present disclosure.

FIG. 7 is a chart showing a method of constructing a standards libraryin accordance with the present disclosure.

FIG. 8 is a chart showing a method of validating and testing performancecriteria in accordance with the present disclosure.

FIG. 9 is a chart showing a method of client assessment in accordancewith the present disclosure.

FIG. 10 is a chart showing a method of projecting future events asopposed to predicting, in accordance with the present disclosure.

FIG. 11 is a chart showing a method of event management or responsecontrol in accordance with the present disclosure.

FIG. 12 is a diagram of a computer system for event assessment,projection and response control in accordance with the presentdisclosure.

FIG. 13 is a chart showing a method for computerized event assessment,projection and control in accordance with the present disclosure.

FIG. 14 shows an exemplary dashboard-style output in accordance with thepresent disclosure.

FIG. 15 shows an exemplary hyperbolic map output in accordance with thepresent disclosure.

FIG. 16 shows an exemplary profile output in accordance with the presentdisclosure.

FIG. 17 shows an exemplary best investment bar graph output inaccordance with the present disclosure.

FIG. 18 is an exemplary diagram of an event path analysis in accordancewith the present disclosure.

FIG. 19 is an exemplary diagram of the event path of FIG. 18 includingcritical nodes along a threat continuum in accordance with the presentdisclosure.

FIG. 20 is a diagram of a critical node analysis for the exemplary arsonevent path of FIGS. 18 and 19, in accordance with the presentdisclosure.

FIG. 21 is a chart showing an exemplary critical node analysis inaccordance with the present disclosure.

FIG. 22 is a chart showing an exemplary relative importance amongcritical nodes.

FIG. 23 is an exemplary online survey for gathering facility data inaccordance with the present disclosure.

FIG. 24 is an exemplary output showing estimated likelihood of riskevent in accordance with the present disclosure.

FIG. 25 is a diagram of an exemplary process for threat assessment,projection and response for a facility, for example, a school, inaccordance with the present disclosure.

FIG. 26 is a continuation of the process diagram of FIG. 25.

FIG. 27 is a chart showing an exemplary threat continuum analysis of theperformance criteria for a school mass shooting/hostage taking riskevent category, in accordance with the present disclosure.

FIGS. 28 and 29 show exemplary risk event category weighting criteriaand weighting, in accordance with the present disclosure.

FIG. 30 is an exemplary computer generated arson event action checklistin accordance with the present disclosure.

FIG. 31 is an exemplary computer generated automated emergencynotification call list in accordance with the present disclosure.

FIG. 32 shows an exemplary spatial visualization of an event location inaccordance with the present disclosure.

FIG. 33 shows an exemplary visualization of a target location inaccordance with the present disclosure.

FIG. 34 shows exemplary computer generated incident management templatesfor display on a computer display and a wireless device display, inaccordance with the present disclosure.

DETAILED DESCRIPTION

While embodiments may be described in connection with various specificapplication examples, it will be appreciated that the methods, systemsand computer readable media disclosed herein are applicable to manytypes of facilities, organizations, processes, scenarios and the like.For example, the complex system risk event methods, systems and computerreadable media disclosed herein can be applied to schools, buildings,biotechnology production, food services (growing, production,distribution and handling), transportation, military facilities, othersensitive facilities where security may be a concern, hospitals,airports, businesses, financial institutions and the like. In general,the techniques, systems and software disclosed herein can be applied toany complex system for which risk assessment, event projection and/orevent response control may be desired.

FIG. 1 is a diagram of a computerized event assessment, projection andcontrol system 100 in accordance with the present disclosure. The system100 includes (i.e., comprises) an event analysis and response system102. The event analysis and response system 102 receives risk eventcategories 104, performance criteria 106, standards 108, historical data110 and situational information 112. The risk event categories 104include those categories of events that present a risk to anorganization, entity and/or facility. For example, in a school settingthe risk event categories can include mass shooting and/or hostagetaking, food adulteration, improvised destructive devices, fire andarson, transportation safety, nuclear, biological and chemical (NBC)emergencies, other on-campus crimes, suicide, communicable disease,natural disasters, and the like. Table 1, below, illustrates the riskevent categories for a school and gives some examples of risk eventswithin each category:

TABLE 1 School Campus Risk Categories and Events CATEGORY RISK EVENTMass shooting/Hostage taking Hostage taking, mass shooting, other FoodAdulteration Natural pathogen, poisoning, adulteration Improviseddestructive devices Threat, actual bombing Fires and Arson Arson,facilities, wildfire Transportation safety Buses in use, other NBCOnsite, offsite Other crimes on campus Assault, larceny, vandalism,alcohol, drugs, other Suicide Drugs, weapons, other means Communicablediseases MRSA, measles, meningitis, influenza, STDs, other Naturaldisasters Tornado, hurricane, lightning, flood, earthquake, other

The performance criteria 106 include those actions that, when analyzedalong a threat continuum, serve to deter, detect, prevent, respondand/or mitigate a specific risk category or event. For example, FIG. 27shows an exemplary threat continuum analysis of the performance criteriafor a school mass shooting/hostage taking risk event category. Thestandards 108 can include: federal, state and/or local rules,regulations, statutes and the like; local and/or national codes;national standards (e.g., ANSI); best industry practices; policies,procedures and processes internal to an organization, entity orfacility; good manufacturing practices; and/or the like.

The historical data 110 can include data about threat or risk eventsthat have occurred in the past. The historical data 110 can beautomatically or manually gathered from sources including but notlimited to: newspapers (online or print), books, television, movies,literature, crime reports, magazines and journals, and the Internet.Once gathered the historical data can be triangulated, which, in thecase of historical data means to group events of the same or similarrisk category. The historical data 110 can also be verified and reverseengineered. Reverse engineering, in the case of historical data, caninclude deconstructing an event into the steps leading up to andincluding the event and to also identifying the results or aftermath ofthe event. The historical data can be stored in a database such as thedatabase system disclosed in co-pending application entitled “MetadataDatabase System and Method,” by the same inventor of the presentapplication, and filed on Nov. 17, 2010, which is hereby incorporatedherein by reference in its entirety.

The situational information 112 can include real time and/or non-realtime information about an event. For example, situational information112 could include information indicating that a shooting event iscurrently in progress. The situational information 112 can be used bythe system to determine where along a threat continuum an eventcurrently is and, based on that determination, to generate anappropriate output for deterring, detecting, preventing, responding toor mitigating the event.

The event analysis and response system 102 processes the received dataand generates outputs. As outputs, the event analysis and responsesystem 102 can provide a risk assessment 114, an event projection 116and an event management/response control 118.

The risk assessment 114 can include such output products as reports orother visualizations showing the validation status of procedures thatimplement written protocols (if any). The risk assessment output canprovide an indication to an organization about the preparedness of theorganization to deter, detect, prevent, respond to or mitigate a risk orthreat event. The risk assessment outputs can be in the form of awritten report printed, electronically transmitted or displayed on adisplay device. The risk assessment outputs can also include one or moregraphical visualizations (see, e.g., FIGS. 14-17) each adapted to conveyessential information clearly.

The event projection 116 output can include reports or graphicalvisualizations that communicate a projected event path, possibleconsequences of the projected event and the ability of an organizationto deter, detect, prevent, respond to and/or mitigate the event based onthe risk assessment of the organization. An event path can include thesequential steps leading up to and following a threat or risk event. Theevent projection process and outputs are discussed in greater detailbelow in reference to FIGS. 18-24.

The event response/management control 118 outputs include reports,visualization and automated actions that help an organization respond toand mitigate an event that is in progress or has been completed. Eventresponse/management outputs are discussed in greater detail below inreference to FIGS. 30-34.

The system 100 can operate according to the processes shown in FIGS. 3,4-11 and 13 and described below. The event analysis and response system102 is described in greater detail below in connection with FIG. 12.

FIG. 2 shows a diagram of a computerized event assessment, projectionand control system in accordance with the present disclosure. Theassessment system 200 includes a knowledge engine 202 adapted to receivebest practices 204, minimum compliance standards 206 and data from anevent database 208. The event database 208 receives input such as pastevents 210 and projected events 212. The knowledge engine also receivesand processes data including updated standards 214 and real world events216.

The various inputs are statistically processed in the knowledge engine202 along with optional data gathered from online user surveys. Theonline survey data can be gathered via a web service interface, emailresponse, or the like. The online survey data can include answers toquestions about general and/or specific procedures and processes of anorganization. These answers are numerically scored in order to quantifythe response for later use in calculating risk.

The knowledge engine 202 outputs reports and/or graphical visualizations218 (see, e.g., FIGS. 14-17). The reports can include a level of thepractices being implemented for risk events and can also indicate acapability such as not in compliance 220, in compliance 222, bestpractices 224 and alerts 226.

The knowledge engine 202 can be adapted to be a learning knowledgeengine in that new event data, standards, best practices and minimumcompliance standards can be continuously and automatically added to theknowledge engine 202 database 203. The automatically collected data canbe automatically evaluated, categorized, reverse engineered and/ortriangulated as discussed herein. Data can be automatically collectedthrough such mechanisms as web crawlers and bots designed to collectspecific types of information from previously known and/or newlydiscovered sources. Data may also be automatically collected via feedmechanisms such as RSS and/or through a web services-type interfacebetween the knowledge engine 202 and one or more external systems.Through a machine learning mechanism, the knowledge engine 202 can adaptover time to changing risk categories and events and may be come moreaccurate over time with respect to known events by virtue of anincreasing number of data points from which to base assessments,projections, simulations and responses.

FIG. 3 is a chart of an exemplary method 300 for computerized eventassessment, projection and control system in accordance with the presentdisclosure. Processing begins at 302 and continues to 304.

At 304, risk associated with a complex system is identified,characterized and assessed. For example, in a school setting, the riskevent categories (e.g., mass shooting and/or hostage taking, foodadulteration, improvised destructive devices, fire and arson,transportation safety, nuclear, biological and chemical (NBC)emergencies, other on-campus crimes, suicide, communicable disease,natural disasters, and the like) can be identified and then specificrisk events associated with each category can be identified andquantified (see, e.g., FIGS. 27, 28 and 29). It is important here tonote that quantifying risk event categories sets the stage forautomation of the assessment, projection and response functionsdiscussed herein. By generating or determining quantified data points, acomplex event or process that involves human behavior can be modeled andanalyzed by a computerized method or system more readily and potentiallywith greater accuracy. Processing continues to 306.

At 306, vulnerabilities of critical activities to specific risks areassessed. For example, if a critical activity of an organization is tomaintain food safety, that activity can be assessed according tospecific risk event categories and events. For example, foodadulteration and a nuclear, biological or chemical emergency may posethe most risk to the critical activity of maintaining food safety. Thus,in analyzing risk for a specific critical activity, those eventcategories posing the greatest potential risk may be weighted moreheavily relative to other event categories such that identifying actionsto reduce risk (see 310 below) can be made according to criticalactivity. Processing continues to 308.

At 308, risk is determined. By combining the characterization andassessment of risks with the analysis of the vulnerabilities of criticalactivities to specific risks, an overall risk assessment can bedetermined and ranked (e.g., according to a threat quotient for eachrisk event and/or category). Processing continues to 310.

At 310, actions to reduce risk are identified. Actions or critical nodesthat can play a role in deterring, detecting, preventing, responding toand/or mitigating a risk event can be identified and quantified (see,e.g., FIG. 21). Processing continues to 312.

At 312, risk reduction measures are prioritized. Risk reduction measurescan be prioritized according to the threat quotient of the risk beingreduced, the effectiveness of the risk reduction measure, the cost ofthe risk reduction measure, or a combination of two or more of theabove. Processing continues to 314, where processing ends. An output ofthe process of FIG. 3 could include reports or graphical visualizationsthat can be printed, displayed, or electronically transmitted (see,e.g., FIG. 17) and which can show the best investments for a specificrisk event category at a specific point along the threat continuum.

FIG. 4 is a chart of an exemplary method 400 for computerized eventassessment, projection and control system in accordance with the presentdisclosure. Processing begins at 402 and continues to 404.

At 404, risk event categories are triangulated and weighted. In general,triangulation is the application and combination of multiple researchmethodologies in the study of the same phenomenon. Instead of relying ona single form of evidence or perspective as the basis for findings,multiple forms of diverse and redundant types of evidence are used tocheck the validity and reliability of the findings. In the case of riskevent categories, risk events are triangulated by grouping like eventstogether under a single category such as arson or natural disaster. Therisk event categories can be weighted according to an event probabilityalgorithm or a weather and geological events algorithm.

The event probability algorithm, POƒ(v) (c), states that the probabilityof an event occurring (PO) is a function of the vulnerability of thecritical node (v) and the consequences that would result if thatcritical node were successfully attacked or interrupted (c). The weatherand geological events algorithm, (v) ƒPO (c), states that for naturalevents, the vulnerability of a critical node (v) is a function of theprobability of the natural event occurring PO (e.g., based on frequency,trend analysis, modeling or the like) and the consequences (c) should acritical node be subjected to a natural event. The function for naturalevents differs, because the probability is not based on thevulnerability or criticality as in the vent probability algorithm forhuman-caused events. The probability of natural events is typicallydetermined based on historical data and future prediction techniques.Further details of 404 are described below in connection with FIG. 5.Processing continues to 406.

At 406, performance criteria are determined and weighted. Thedetermination of performance criteria (or modification of predeterminedcriteria) can be manual (e.g., entering performance criteria specific toa given organization into a database) or automatic (e.g., usingpreviously established performance criteria for an industry or sector ofactivity to automatically generate a baseline set of performancecriteria that are likely to cover most if not all of the performancecriteria for an organization in that industry or sector). Furtherdetails of 406 are described below in connection with FIG. 6 and FIG.21. Processing continues to 408.

At 408, a standards library is constructed automatically, manually orthrough a combination of manual and automatic techniques (as discussedabove regarding knowledge engine 202). The standards library can be inthe form of an electronic (or computerized) database. The standards caninclude: federal, state and/or local rules, regulations, statutes andthe like; local and/or national codes; national standards (e.g., ANSI);best industry practices; policies, procedures and processes internal toan organization, entity or facility; good manufacturing practices;and/or the like. Further details of 408 are described below inconnection with FIG. 7. Processing continues to 410.

At 410, the performance criteria are validated and tested. Thevalidation and testing of performance criteria may include actual humantesting of performance criteria and assumptions. A particular approachto deterring, detecting, preventing, responding to or mitigating anevent can be validated with human simulation and testing and theperformance criteria can be refined. Further details of 410 aredescribed below in connection with FIG. 8. Processing continues to 412.

At 412, a client is assessed based on the performance criteriadetermined and validated in 406 and 410, respectively. The assessment isused to convey to a client organization how well the organization isperforming with respect to specific performance criteria. For example,an organization may be underperforming in a first performance criterionthat is critical, while over performing in a second performancecriterion that is less critical than the first. Such information can beused by an organization to reallocate resources according to theassessment, say by allocating more resources to the first performancecriterion and less resource to the second performance criterion in theexample mentioned above. Further details of 412 are described below inconnection with FIG. 9. Processing continues to 414.

At 414, future events are projected. The projection of future eventsencompasses a collection of techniques designed to produce a projectedrange of possible events, rather than trying to predict an event or astep within an event or situation. Further details of 414 are describedbelow in connection with FIG. 10. Also, future event projection isdiscussed in further detail in reference to FIGS. 18-24. Processingcontinues to 416.

At 416, event management is performed. Event management encompassesproviding response templates for an event and contacting the appropriateparties to alert them to the event. Additional details of 416 aredescribed below in connection with FIG. 11 and in connection with FIGS.30-34. Processing continues to 418.

At 418, one or more steps are repeated based on the complex risk eventor threat situation being assessed and controlled. Processing continuesto 420, where processing ends.

FIG. 5 is a chart showing further detail of the method 404 oftriangulating and weighting risk event categories in accordance with thepresent disclosure. Processing begins at 502 and continues to 504.

At 504, available data is triangulated, as discussed above in relationto triangulate and weight relevant categories 404. Processing continuesto 506.

At 506, an events database is designed and populated. The eventsdatabase can be built and populated according to the techniques andstructure set forth in co-pending application entitled “MetadataDatabase System and Method,” by the same inventor as the presentapplication and filed on Nov. 17, 2010, which is hereby incorporatedherein by reference in its entirety. Processing continues to 508 wherethe categories of risk events are triangulated as discussed above.Processing continues to 510.

At 510, weighting criteria for each risk event category is determined.The process of determining weighting criteria is discussed in greaterdetail below in reference to FIG. 28. Processing continues to 512.

At 512, each risk event category is weighted and ranked. The weightingand ranking of risk event categories is discussed in greater detailbelow in reference to FIG. 29. Processing continues to 514, whereprocessing ends.

FIG. 6 is a chart showing details of the method 406 of determining andweighting performance criteria in accordance with the presentdisclosure. Processing begins at 602 and continues to 604.

At 604, past events are reverse engineered. The process of reverseengineering past events can include generating an event path sequence bydeconstructing an event into the steps leading up to and including theevent and also identifying the results or aftermath of the event. Eachstep and consequence in the event path can be placed into a databaserecord associated with that event. Processing continues to 606.

At 606, a threat (or risk) continuum analysis is performed based on athreat continuum including phases of: deterring, detecting, preventing,responding and mitigating. Deter and detection fall under a surveillancefunctional area. Detect and prevent fall under a communication area.Prevent and respond fall under a timeliness of response grouping and allphases on the threat continuum can be correlated with the quality of theresponse. Processing continues to 608.

At 608, performance criteria are determined in conjunction withhistorical data and organization procedures and personnel. An example ofperformance criteria is shown in FIG. 27. Processing continues to 610.

At 610, a rationale for weighting performance criteria over the threat(or risk) continuum is developed using historical data from a databaseand/or data from the organization. An example of a performance criteriaweighting rationale is discussed below in reference to FIG. 28.Processing continues to 612.

At 612, performance criteria are weighted over the threat continuumaccording to the rationale developed in 610. Performance criteria mayhave different impact at different stages of the threat continuum. Forexample, a metal detector at an entrance door may serve to deter, detector prevent a shooting incident, but may do little to respond to ormitigate such an event. Accordingly, the performance criterion ofplacing metal detectors at entrance doors may be weighted more heavilyfor deterring, detecting and preventing relative to the weighting forresponding to and mitigating. An example of performance criteriaweighting is discussed below in connection with FIG. 29. Processingcontinues to 614.

At 614, indicators and warnings are isolated. Indicators and warningsare identified and isolated based on past event data. Indicators andwarnings are those things that, had we known them in advance, an eventcould have been stopped or interrupted. For example, in the analysis ofa building shooting incident, the indication of a metal object on personmay have been effective in stopping the incident from happening, andthus a metal detector would be an indicator. In another example, it isknown that many, if not all, student shooting suspects mentioned thethought of harming others to at least one adult prior to taking action.Thus, the mentioning of a violent action by a student, had it beenfollowed up on appropriately, may have been effective to preventing aschool shooting incident. Processing continues to 616.

At 616, an intelligence collection strategy is formulated. Theintelligence collection strategy can be formulated automatically (e.g.,using past event path and critical node analysis data), manually (e.g.,with the input of organization personnel and/or outside experts) orthrough a combination of the above. The intelligence collection strategycan include identifying what data is needed order to issue alerts, forexample, door alarm monitors. Processing continues to 618.

At 618, alerts by event category are issued by the system. Theindicators and warnings and the intelligence collection strategy combineto form an approach for monitoring situations and in which alerts can beissued by event category to the organization. For example, in the caseof a school shooting incident, metal detectors were in use, but theemergency exit doors had no alarms. Accordingly, the perpetrators of theshooting placed weapons just outside emergency doors, entered thebuilding through the metal detectors and then proceeded to open theemergency exit doors, retrieve their weapons and begin an attack on theschool. The present system, having knowledge of this specific pastevent, would have issued an alert to a school for the shooting threatcategory if the school either didn't have metal detectors, or had metaldetectors, but no alarms on emergency exit doors. In this way, thesystem can use knowledge of past events and of the indications andintelligence needed to thwart a similar event in the future to alert anorganization to weaknesses in their current system or processes.Processing continues to step 620, where processing ends.

FIG. 7 is a chart showing further detail of a method 408 of constructinga standards library in accordance with the present disclosure.Processing begins at 702 and continues to 704.

At 704, source data is triangulated to determine minimum compliancestandards and best practices. Triangulation, in the case of a standardslibrary, can include identifying a set of categories for the standardsand a minimum set of items or process steps in each category that wouldsatisfy the various constituents of the standards library. For example,in the food processing industry, one category of standard may relate toworker health and cleanliness. Within the worker health and cleanlinesscategory, there may be specific requirements such as having a writtenworker health policy. The requirement for a written worker health policymay satisfy a number of rules, regulations, industry standards, minimumcompliance standards and/or best practices. Source data can be collectedautomatically by crawlers, robots or spiders from publicly accessibleinformation sources such as government websites, industry or tradeorganizations and the like. Processing continues to 706.

At 706, compliance standards and best practices are compared withinternally generated performance criteria. A result of this comparisonis an identification (see 708, below) of any “gaps” between theperformance criteria and compliance standards and best practices. Forexample, a gap would exist where even if compliance standards and bestpractices were applied, an event would not be stopped. Thus there is a“gap” between the compliance standards and best practices and theperformance criteria for a given event. Processing continues to 708.

At 708, any gaps in the compliance standards and best practices areidentified and filled. A gap can be filled by including a process stepor structural element that would stop the event. For instance, referringback to the earlier school shooting example, a best practice was to usemetal detectors at entrance doors to a school. However, there was a gapbetween the best practice and the performance criteria in that theemergency doors did not have alarms and allowed weapons to be stashedoutside those doors and retrieved without alerting school officials.Thus, the gap between the performance criteria and best practices couldbe “filled” by specifying that emergency doors have alarms installed.Processing continues to 710.

At 710, control questions are determined. Control questions are used tovalidate that the answers to earlier questions are accurate. Forexample, a question about a specific written policy may be followed by acontrol question asking about the contents of the written policy. Or, aquestion about compliance with a standard may be followed by a controlquestions asking a specific detail of the standard that, if answeredcorrectly, would suggest that indeed the organization was in compliancewith the standard. Control questions are used to help verify the propersurvey responses. Processing continues to 712.

At 712, data is converted to a modified Delphi format and stored in adatabase. The triangulated standards information determined earlier isconverted to question format for use in a survey. For example, if it wasdetermined that having a written worker health policy was a triangulateddata point in the standards for food processors, that data point couldbe turned into a question by phrasing it as “Do you have a writtenworker health policy?” Modified Delphi format is used in the Delphiforecasting method based on the results of automatically generatedonline survey questionnaires sent to a panel of experts (or organizationpersonnel). For example, one or more rounds of questionnaires can besent out, and the anonymous responses can be aggregated and shared withthe group after each round. Survey participants can be allowed to adjusttheir answers in subsequent rounds. Because multiple rounds of questionscan be asked and because each member of the panel may be told what thegroup thinks as a whole, the Delphi Method seeks to reach the “correct”response through consensus. The control questions could be used in asubsequent surveying round of questionnaires. Processing continues to714, where processing ends.

FIG. 8 is a chart showing further detail of a method 410 of validatingand testing performance criteria in accordance with the presentdisclosure. Processing begins at 802 and continues to 804.

At 804, a multi-disciplinary review is performed on the data generatedin steps 404-408 of FIG. 4, described above. The multi-disciplinaryreview can include evaluating the past events database, the performancecriteria and the standards library from the vantage point of variousdisciplines, e.g., manufacturing, police/security, fire fighting,medical, operations, administration, financial, facilities, physicalplant and/or the like. The multi-disciplinary review helps to ensurethat the data generated in steps 404-408 are accurate and complete to anappropriate level. Processing continues to 806.

At 806, event paths and performance criteria are tested usingsimulations and real-world testing. Performance criteria during pastevents and projected events can be tested and simulated to fullyconsider whether the right performance criteria have been identified foreach category of event. For example, an early approach to a shooter in aschool setting was for the instructor to place a piece of red paper in awindow to indicate to police or other emergency personnel that theshooter was or had been in that room. However, during simulations of aschool shooting event it became apparent that the teacher would beexposed to increased danger along with the class when the “paper in thewindow” technique was attempted. Instead, with input from militarytactical experts, it was determined that the best course of action(e.g., least casualties) was for everyone in the classroom to flee. Bytesting performance criteria in simulated real-world settings, theaccuracy of the information that will be automatically generated can beimproved. Essentially, steps 804 and 806 provide a real-world humancheck on the data at this stage and can correct or improve the data asneeded. Processing continues to step 808, where processing ends.

FIG. 9 is a chart showing further detail of a method 412 of clientassessment in accordance with the present disclosure. Processing beginsat 902 and continues to 904.

At 904, performance assessment data is received by the system. Theperformance assessment data can be collected and received from automatedonline surveys having questions generated as discussed above. Processingcontinues to 906.

At 906, a performance assessment is conducted. The performanceassessment can include comparing the gathered performance data of anorganization with the expected performance data based on past eventanalysis. Difference between actual and expected performance canindicate an under (or over) performance that needs correcting. Theperformance assessment can be output as a report or as a graphicalvisualization such as that shown in FIGS. 14-16. Processing continues to908, where processing ends.

FIG. 10 is a chart showing further details of a method 414 of projectingfuture events, in accordance with the present disclosure. Processingbegins at 1002 and continues to 1004.

At 1004, projected event paths for different categories of risk aregenerated. These projected event paths are generated based on actualpast events taken from the past events database or from contemplatedpossible events. Processing continues to 1006.

At 1006, projected events are reverse engineered. Reverse engineering,as described above, includes breaking down an event into its constituentsteps, critical nodes and results.

Processing continues to 1008. At 1008, a risk continuum analysis isaccessed. The risk continuum analysis includes an analysis of eachprojected event path along the threat (or risk) continuum. For example,see FIG. 21 and related description below. Processing continues to 1010.

At 1010, a critical node analysis is performed. Critical nodes areanalyzed along the threat continuum. Critical nodes are analyzed becausethey can play a role in deterring, detecting, preventing, responding toand/or mitigating a risk event. Critical node analysis can includeanalyzing an event path to determine what actions or information alongthe event path could have stopped, interrupted or impeded progression ofthe event. See, also description of FIGS. 20 and 21, below. Processingcontinues to 1012.

At 1012, critical nodes are weighted. The weighting of critical nodesalong the threat continuum can be performed automatically and/ormanually. For example, relative weighting of critical nodes from pastevents of the same or similar category could be used to automaticallydetermine a critical node weighting. The critical node weighting couldalso be determined using a manual input method or a manual adjustment ofan automatic input method. Processing continues to 1014.

At 1014, a relative value of each critical node is determined. Therelative value of critical nodes according to relative importance can beperformed automatically and/or manually. For example, relative weightingof critical nodes from past events of the same or similar category couldbe used to automatically determine a critical node weighting. Thecritical node weighting could also be determined using a manual inputmethod or a manual adjustment of an automatic input method. Processingcontinues to 1016.

At 1016, an estimated event sequence interruption (EESI) value iscalculated and a win/lose determination is automatically generated basedon the performance criteria values and the critical node weight andrelative importance. The EESI value is calculated based on the followingformula:

Iƒ(dn_(t))(c_(t))(dy_(t))(r_(t))(r_(q)).

Where dn_(t) represents a time of detection, c_(t) represents time tocommunicate a response action, dy_(t) represents a delay time, r_(t)represents a time to respond and r_(q) represents a quality of response.

Processing continues to 1018, where processing ends.

FIG. 11 is a chart showing further detail of a method 416 of eventmanagement or response control in accordance with the presentdisclosure. Processing begins at 1102 and continues to 1104.

At 1104, an event actions library is developed based on performancecriteria and projected events. The event actions checklist can beautomatically generated and can include checklists for each category ofrisk or threat event. For example, FIG. 30 shows an event actionschecklist. Processing continues to 1106.

At 1106, an event action checklist is selected based on the type ofevent. As mentioned above, the event actions library can include anevent action checklist for each event category (and/or specific event).Based on received user inputs, the system can automatically retrieve andpresent the event action checklist for a particular event in progress.Processing continues to 1108.

At 1108, an emergency URL generation protocol is determined. Theemergency URL generation protocol is a procedure use to generate arandom URL for emergency use during the event. The emergency URL canpoint to an online resource page that provides information toorganization personnel and first responders, emergency workers and/orpolice, security or military forces. Processing continues to 1110.

At 1110, emergency notification call lists are generated. Emergencynotification call lists are generated based on the specific event andinclude generating a list of those people or organizations that havepreviously been entered in to the data and associated with the eventcategory or specific event. The call list can be provided as output to aperson or another system, or the call list can be automaticallyprocessed and calls, emails, text message and/or the like can be sent toentities on the call list. Processing continues to 1112.

At 1112, a spatial visualization of an event is generated. The spatialvisualization may be viewed on a display device coupled to a riskmanagement system or transmitted to another system (such as anotherworkstation, a PDA, wireless device or the like) for viewing. Thespatial visualization can be generated using, for example, electronicmapping software. See, for example, FIG. 32. Processing continues to1114.

At 1114, a target location is shown on the spatial visualization. Basedon input by organization personnel, emergency or security workers, atarget location can be specified and displayed on the visualization.See, for example, FIG. 33. Processing continues to 1116.

At 1116, incident management templates are generated. Incidentmanagement templates are generated from a combination of an existingincident template retrieved from the database along with event specificinformation received about the event in progress. An incident managementtemplate can include a graphical rendering of the area of the incidentalong with incident start/end times, incident description, emergencyURL, identification of evacuation assembly areas, emergency command postand first responder staging areas. See, FIG. 34 for more detail.Processing continues to 1118, where processing ends.

FIG. 12 is a diagram of a computer system for event assessment,projection and response control in accordance with the presentdisclosure. The event analysis and response system 102 includes aprocessor 1202 having a processing unit 1203 and a computer readablememory 1205. The processor 1202 is connecting to a database 1204, adisplay 1206, one or more I/O devices 1208, one or more sensors 1210 andone or more actuators 1212. The processor is also connected to a network1214 (e.g., a LAN, WAN, WiFi, Internet, or the like). The processor 1202is able to receive data from external information sources 1218 and toexchange information with other devices such as a wireless device 1216.

The display 1206 can include a CRT, LCD, LED, plasma display or thelike. The I/O devices 1208 can include a keyboard, mouse, pointer or thelike. The sensors 1210 can include sensors such as video, audio,temperature, chemical, biological, nuclear sensors, and also threatscanning equipment (metal detector, x-ray, millimeter wave or the like).The actuators 1212 can include solenoids, relays, signal lines to othersystems, and also auditory or visual indicators.

As a user moves through various user interface screens shown on display1206 for entering data and/or viewing reports or visualizations, theuser can select a user interface element on each screen that willcapture a “snapshot” of the screen (either to a data storage device as adigital file or to a print out, or both). A sequence of snapshots can beused, for example, as back-up information for a risk analysis orassessment and as documentation of the process steps and valuesentered/reviewed at each point in the analysis or assessment.

FIG. 13 is a chart showing a method 1300 for computerized eventassessment, projection and control in accordance with the presentdisclosure. Processing begins at 1302 and continues to 1304.

At 1304, event data is harvested and filtered. For example, event datacan be harvested from sources on the Internet using a spider, bot orcrawler to automatically access a web page and retrieve information. Theretrieved information can be filtered so that only the information ofinterest is retained. The harvested and filtered event data can bestored in a database. Processing continues to 1306.

At 1306, event paths (e.g., as discussed above in connection with 604 ofFIG. 6) are developed for each event. Processing continues to 1308. At1308, the critical nodes for each event path are identified and weightedacross the risk (or threat) continuum. Processing continues to 1310.

At 1310, the severity of the consequences for each event are identifiedand weighted. By identifying and weighting the severity of eventconsequences, an organization or entity can determine a priority list ofevents based on consequence severity. See, e.g., FIGS. 28 and 29 andaccompanying descriptions below for further discussion of consequenceweighting. Processing continues to 1312. At 1312, event paths aregrouped and generic event paths are developed. Processing continues to1314.

At 1314, critical nodes of generic event paths are weighted. Thecritical nodes are weighted along the threat (or risk) continuum inorder to perform an analysis of which critical nodes can have the mosteffect on a particular phase of the threat continuum. Processingcontinues to 1316. At 1316, standards are harvested and filtered.Standards may be harvested and filtered in a manner similar to thatdescribed above regarding 1304 and 408. Processing continues to 1318.

At 1318, standards are triangulated and online surveys are produced.Processing continues to 1320. As discussed herein, triangulatingstandards to generate a set of online survey questions can includeidentifying a set of questions that covers each of the relevantstandards at a level, such as minimum compliance, best practice, and/orgood manufacturing, or the like. A minimum set of questions may begenerated that can be used to assess the appropriate standards with aminimum number of survey questions. At 1320, each survey question isweighted across the risk (or threat) continuum. For example, questionsrelating to preventative measures (e.g., worker health) may be moreheavily weighted on the prevent phase of the threat continuum as opposedto the response phase. Processing continues to 1322.

At 1322, online survey questions are issued electronically, for example,via email, web page, mobile device application or the like. Processingcontinues to 1324. At 1324, survey responses are scored and performancereports are generated and issued. The survey responses can be used togenerate a numerical score that represents a measure of how well anorganization or entity is meeting standards for minimum compliance, bestpractices, good manufacturing practices, or the like. Processingcontinues to 1326.

At 1326, data is statistically processed to generate outputs supportingassessment, audit, certification and inspection. For example, theperformance criteria weighting and ranking can be compared against thesurvey results corresponding to those same performance criteria todetermine how well an organization or entity is meeting the applicablestandards. Processing continues to 1328, where processing ends.

It will be appreciated that, for the above-described processes, stepsmay be repeated in whole or in part in order to accomplish acontemplated risk management task.

FIG. 14 shows an exemplary dashboard-style display 1400 in accordancewith the present disclosure. In particular, the dashboard-style display1400 can include one or more graphical gauges 1402 that indicate theperformance for a given criteria (e.g., core safety program, firesafety, etc.). A legend 1404 can be provided on the display that tells auser what the gauge value ranges indicate (e.g., immediate attentionrequired, does not meet expectations, and best practice). This type ofdisplay can be used to indicate performance criteria analysis results,threat assessment, critical node analysis results, or, in general, anyvalues that may be suitable for display in a dashboard-style.

FIG. 15 shows an exemplary hyperbolic map 1500 output in accordance withthe present disclosure. The hyperbolic map 1500 includes graphicalelements that can be colored, shaded or filled or sized to indicate adifference between value levels (e.g., between 1502 and 1504). This typeof display can be used to indicate performance criteria analysisresults, threat assessment, critical node analysis results, or, ingeneral, any values that may be suitable for display in a hyperbolicmap.

FIG. 16 shows an exemplary profile output 1600 in accordance with thepresent disclosure. The profile output 1600 (also known as a spiderchart or radar plot) includes a number of radii each associated with anitem 1602 such as a critical node, performance criteria or the like. Theprofile output 1600 also includes plot points (1604 and 1606) indicatinga value of an individual item on the chart. The profile output can alsoinclude a legend 1608 that shows what each plot point color indicates.For example, a red plot point can be used to indicate that immediateattention is required for that individual item; a yellow point can beused to indicate that that individual does not meet expectations and agreen plot point can be used to indicate that a best practice is beingused for the item associated with that plot point.

FIG. 17 shows an exemplary best investment bar graph output 1700 inaccordance with the present disclosure. The best investment bar graph1700 shows individual values (1702) for each critical node (1704) ateach phase along a threat continuum (1706). The best investment bargraph illustrates which threat continuum phase each critical node ismost effective in, and also for a given threat continuum phase whichcritical node would make the best investment.

FIG. 18 is an exemplary diagram of an event path analysis 1800 inaccordance with the present disclosure. The event path analysis 1800includes a high level path 1802 and a detailed path 1804 showing thetime sequence of steps that make up a typical arson event from start tofinish. The high level path includes the steps of motivation, idea,plan, resources and execution. These high-level steps are common to mosthuman initiated events.

The detailed steps 1804 include threats or threatening behavior, obtainaccelerant, smuggle into building, access target area, start fire, leavearea undetected, automatic suppression, fire loading, sustainable blaze,fire spread, response, containment. While FIG. 18 shows an event pathanalysis for an arson event, it will be understood that an event pathanalysis can be performed for any risk or threat event.

FIG. 19 is an exemplary diagram of the event path of FIG. 18 includingcritical nodes along a threat continuum in accordance with the presentdisclosure. In particular, a chart 1900 shows the arson event pathdetailed steps 1804 of FIG. 18 as the first column and the threatcontinuum (e.g., deter, detect, prevent, respond, mitigate) as the nextfive columns, in order. In each cell of the event path chart of FIG. 19,there is a critical node listed (if any) associated with thecorresponding step/threat continuum phase. For example, for theobtaining accelerant step at the detection phase, contraband searcheswould be a critical node, while at the mitigation stage there is noentry because obtaining accelerant has no connection with mitigating anarson event. By connecting the event path steps with critical nodesalong the threat continuum, a framework of relationships is created thatwill permit a quantitative analysis to be performed and output (e.g.,FIG. 17).

Critical nodes can include data representing a vertex or a place where anumber of interdependent variables cross one another. The critical nodevertexes are those points in a larger system that may be most sensitiveto changes because when they are disturbed they have the greatestextended order effects on the larger system. In other words, a criticalnode can represent a critical aspect of an event sequence or a categoryof event sequences that, when affected, can increase or decrease thelikelihood of the event occurring or the consequences of eventescalation. Event escalation can include a cascading system failure.Critical nodes can also include a weighting of each critical node acrossa threat or risk continuum. The threat (or risk) continuum can includedeter, detect, prevent, respond and mitigate phases.

FIG. 20 is a diagram of a critical node analysis for the exemplary arsonevent path of FIGS. 18 and 19, showing a frequency analysis of therelationships between the high level event path 1802 of FIG. 18, thedetailed event path 1804 of FIG. 18 and the critical nodes (see, e.g.,FIG. 19). The frequency analysis can also contribute to the quantitativeanalysis of an event path.

FIG. 21 is a chart showing an exemplary critical node analysis chart2100 in accordance with the present disclosure. The chart 2100incorporates quantitative values representing the critical node/eventpath analysis of FIG. 19 and the frequency analysis of FIG. 20 into asingle quantitative analysis chart. The critical nodes 2102 form thefirst column, the threat continuum values and relative weightings 2104form the next five columns, followed by a weighted sum 2106, anormalized value 2108, a frequency 2110 and a normalized weighted value2112 in the subsequent four columns.

The weightings of the threat continuum columns are 0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.25and 0.15 for deter, detect, prevent, respond and mitigate, respectively.As can be seen from these weightings, prevention is given the highestweighting. As the example shown is for an arson event, it can be easilyunderstand that preventing an arson event would be paramount for helpingensure human safety and property.

A best investment chart can be generated from FIG. 19 using the criticalnode analysis data of the chart 2100. For each critical node, the barvalue can be obtained by multiplying the threat continuum phaseweighting value by the critical node value to obtain a weighted criticalnode value than can then be normalized for graphing purposes. Forexample, the values 2104 of FIG. 21 can be plotted on a bar graph foreach threat continuum phase of each critical node to generate a bestinvestment chart showing the best investment by critical node and bythreat continuum phase.

FIG. 22 is a chart showing an exemplary relative importance among thevalues 2112 for the critical nodes 2102 of FIG. 21. These valuesrepresent a similar indication as the best investment bar graphdiscussed above, except that these relative importance values representcomposite numbers made up of a critical node's values across all phasesor stages of the threat continuum.

FIG. 23 is an exemplary online survey for gathering facility data inaccordance with the present disclosure. These questions are formulatedto assess the critical nodes that are most important to each phase ofthe threat continuum. The answers to these questions can be combinedwith the critical node analysis quantitative data to produce an output(see, FIG. 24) showing an estimated likelihood of an arson event. Thecombination could include assigning a point value to each positiveresponse and then scoring the answers to come up with a total score andshowing a line on the “win/lose” graph of FIG. 24 to indicate the scoreachieved by the organization. A high score may indicate a lowlikelihood, while a low score may indicate a high likelihood of theevent occurring. This final output is based on quantitative valuesrelated to the event path, the threat continuum, the critical nodes andthe organizations responses to an online survey questionnaire. So, therisk level of an event like arson, which is human initiated and may inthe past been thought of as difficult to quantify, has, throughapplication of the methods and system disclosed herein, been transformedinto quantifiable risk level value. Moreover, a best investment bargraph output (similar to that shown in FIG. 19) can be generated thatcan serve to guide an organization's leadership into placing investmentwhere it will have the greatest impact on reducing the risk of an eventfor any desired phase along the threat continuum.

FIG. 25 is a diagram of an exemplary process for threat assessment,projection and response for a facility, for example, a school. Theprocess begins when the school purchases a commercial embodiment of asystem 2502 that has been tailored for use by schools. The school thenregisters the product online 2504 including providing school name,address, program administrator, contact information and demographicinformation 2506. This information can be used for emergency contact andfor spatial visualization tasks during an event.

The school then establishes an account 2508, issues passwords 2510 andthe program administrator completes the core questionnaire 2512, theresults of which are stored in the knowledge engine 2513. The programadministrator identifies category experts 2514 and forwardscategory-specific questionnaires to area experts 2516. Area expertsestablish accounts, issue passwords and answer category-specificquestionnaires 2518.

FIG. 26 is a continuation of the process diagram of FIG. 25 showinginteraction with and processing performed by the system 2502. Scores forthe core questionnaire are compiled by category and question 2602.Scores for category specific questionnaires are compiled by category andquestion 2604. Reports of core and category-specific scores withrecommendations are generated 2606. The school system 2502 of FIGS. 25and 26 can come preloaded with risk categories for a school settingincluding event path analysis and critical node analysis values alreadyin place. By simply completing the core and category specificquestionnaires, the knowledge engine can generate reports andrecommendations.

Core and category-specific scores are cross-referenced to identifydisparities 2608. Disparities can be flagged and alerts sent to theprogram administrator 2610. External threat data (e.g., data supplied byschool) is used to adjust threat quotient by category and question 2612.External threat data is flagged as an alert to the program administratorand category experts 2614. The program administrator receives a reportwith recommendations and alerts 2616. Templates of reporting correctionsand responses to alerts are automatically generated 2618.

The program administrator forwards the report with recommendations andalerts to category experts 2620. The category experts report correctionsusing the automatically generated templates 2622. The programadministrator reports corrections using the automatically generatedtemplate 2624.

FIG. 27 is a chart showing an exemplary threat continuum analysis of theperformance criteria for a school mass shooting/hostage taking riskevent category, in accordance with the present disclosure. Each columnrepresents a phase or stage of the threat continuum (i.e., deter,detect, prevent, respond, mitigate). Rows in each column list theperformance criteria relevant to each phase. This correlation betweenthreat continuum phase and individual performance criteria permitsanalysis of performance criteria relative to a specific phase along thethreat continuum.

FIGS. 28 and 29 show exemplary risk event category weighting criteriaand weighting, in accordance with the present disclosure. In FIG. 28,the columns represent risk category, vulnerability and consequence. Ineach event category row, criteria are identified that feed into aweighting and quantification of the risk events.

In FIG. 29, the rows for each event category have been populated withweighting values according to the weighting criteria. Also, weightingvalues can be verified and validated by internal or external sources,for example, by an internal panel of category experts, an external panelof category experts, a database of previously determined categoryweightings, or a combination of the above.

FIG. 30 is an exemplary computer generated arson event action checklistin accordance with the present disclosure. During an arson event, thesystem can generate the checklist of FIG. 30 to guide the responseeffort. A user of the system would simply need to input that an arsonevent is in progress and the system can respond with the appropriatechecklist (i.e., FIG. 30). Also, an automated fire detection systemcould initiate automatic fire suppression equipment, signal anevacuation of the appropriate areas and signal the system to generatethe arson/fire checklist to be provided as output.

FIG. 31 is an exemplary computer generated automated emergencynotification call list in accordance with the present disclosure. Theemergency notification call list can be used by a person to make callsto the appropriate people or agencies. Alternatively, or in addition toa manual approach, the system could automatically place calls, textmessages, emails, and/or other suitable communication message to thepeople and/or entities identified on the list.

FIG. 32 shows an exemplary spatial visualization of an event location inaccordance with the present disclosure. The spatial visualization can begenerated using public or private data map and/or image data. Forexample, Google maps or other sources available on the Internet can beused to render a graphical, spatial visualization of an event location.As shown in FIG. 32, several different levels of visualization detailcan be provided, depending on the needs of an organization or ofresponders to an event (e.g., national map, regional satellite imagery,local satellite imagery, building layouts, or the like).

FIG. 33 shows an exemplary visualization of a target location inaccordance with the present disclosure. If a more precise location ofthe event within a broader location is known, then a target locationvisualization can be generated that shows the event location in greaterdetail. As shown in FIG. 33, a campus satellite or aerial image can beshown along with a facility layout and indication of certain areaswithin campus (e.g., evacuation meeting points).

FIG. 34 shows exemplary computer generated incident management templatesfor display on a computer display and a wireless device display, inaccordance with the present disclosure. For example, the display caninclude incident (or event) details such as start time, end time andemergency URL. Evacuation assembly areas can be shown. A description ofthe incident can be provided that tells the type of incident andresponse steps taken thus far (e.g., evacuation, notifications made andemergency URL generated). The display can also show command postinformation such as location, emergency radio frequencies, telephonenumbers and officer in charge. First responder staging details can bedisplayed including location, emergency frequencies, telephone number,officer in charge and/or special instructions for first responders. Theincident management display can be provided for display on a desktop orlaptop computer. Also, the incident management screen can be adapted fordisplay on a mobile or wireless device such as a Blackberry, iPhone,smartphone, cell phone, feature phone, netbook and/or the like.

The methods and processes discussed herein have been described assequential for purposes of clarity of explanation. It will beappreciated the steps shown and described herein may be performed in adifferent order and/or in parallel, where appropriate.

It will be appreciated that the modules, processes, systems, andsections described above can be implemented in hardware, hardwareprogrammed by software, software instruction stored on a nontransitorycomputer readable medium or a combination of the above. For example, asystem for computerized event assessment, projection and control ofcomplex systems (e.g., 100 or 200) can be implemented, for example,using a processor configured to execute a sequence of programmedinstructions stored on a nontransitory computer readable medium. Forexample, the processor can include, but not be limited to, a personalcomputer or workstation or other such computing system that includes aprocessor, microprocessor, microcontroller device, or is comprised ofcontrol logic including integrated circuits such as, for example, anApplication Specific Integrated Circuit (ASIC). The instructions can becompiled from source code instructions provided in accordance with aprogramming language such as Java, C++, C#.net or the like. Theinstructions can also comprise code and data objects provided inaccordance with, for example, the Visual Basic™ language, or anotherstructured or object-oriented programming language. The sequence ofprogrammed instructions and data associated therewith can be stored in anontransitory computer-readable medium such as a computer memory orstorage device which may be any suitable memory apparatus, such as, butnot limited to ROM, PROM, EEPROM, RAM, flash memory, disk drive and thelike.

Furthermore, the modules, processes systems, and sections can beimplemented as a single processor or as a distributed processor.Further, it should be appreciated that the steps mentioned above may beperformed on a single or distributed processor (single and/ormulti-core). Also, the processes, modules, and sub-modules described inthe various figures of and for embodiments above may be distributedacross multiple computers or systems or may be co-located in a singleprocessor or system. Exemplary structural embodiment alternativessuitable for implementing the modules, sections, systems, means, orprocesses described herein are provided below.

The modules, processors or systems described above can be implemented asa programmed general purpose computer, an electronic device programmedwith microcode, a hard-wired analog logic circuit, software stored on acomputer-readable medium or signal, an optical computing device, anetworked system of electronic and/or optical devices, a special purposecomputing device, an integrated circuit device, a semiconductor chip,and a software module or object stored on a computer-readable medium orsignal, for example.

Embodiments of the method and system (or their sub-components ormodules), may be implemented on a general-purpose computer, aspecial-purpose computer, a programmed microprocessor or microcontrollerand peripheral integrated circuit element, an ASIC or other integratedcircuit, a digital signal processor, a hardwired electronic or logiccircuit such as a discrete element circuit, a programmed logic circuitsuch as a PLD, PLA, FPGA, PAL, or the like. In general, any processcapable of implementing the functions or steps described herein can beused to implement embodiments of the method, system, or a computerprogram product (software program stored on a nontransitory computerreadable medium).

Furthermore, embodiments of the disclosed method, system, and computerprogram product may be readily implemented, fully or partially, insoftware using, for example, object or object-oriented softwaredevelopment environments that provide portable source code that can beused on a variety of computer platforms. Alternatively, embodiments ofthe disclosed method, system, and computer program product can beimplemented partially or fully in hardware using, for example, standardlogic circuits or a VLSI design. Other hardware or software can be usedto implement embodiments depending on the speed and/or efficiencyrequirements of the systems, the particular function, and/or particularsoftware or hardware system, microprocessor, or microcomputer beingutilized. Embodiments of the method, system, and computer programproduct can be implemented in hardware and/or software using any knownor later developed systems or structures, devices and/or software bythose of ordinary skill in the applicable art from the functiondescription provided herein and with a general basic knowledge of therisk management and/or computer programming arts.

Moreover, embodiments of the disclosed method, system, and computerprogram product can be implemented in software executed on a programmedgeneral purpose computer, a special purpose computer, a microprocessor,or the like.

It is, therefore, apparent that there is provided, in accordance withthe various embodiments disclosed herein, computer systems, methods andsoftware for computerized event assessment, projection and control ofcomplex systems. Risks, threats or events projected, detected and/orvisualized can include fires, bombings, shootings, natural disasters,terrorism, nuclear-biological-chemical emergencies, transportationemergencies, disease, food adulteration, suicide and/or other crimes.

While the invention has been described in conjunction with a number ofembodiments, it is evident that many alternatives, modifications andvariations would be or are apparent to those of ordinary skill in theapplicable arts. Accordingly, Applicants intend to embrace all suchalternatives, modifications, equivalents and variations that are withinthe spirit and scope of the appended claims.

1. A computer-based system for managing risk in a complex system, thecomputer-based system comprising: a processor coupled to a data storagedevice; and an interface adapted to exchange data with another device,the data storage device having stored thereon software instructionsthat, when executed by the processor, cause the processor to performoperations including: retrieving historical event data, risk eventcategories and performance criteria from the data storage device;determining event paths for each event that presents a risk; weightingcritical nodes for each event path; retrieving standards from the datastorage device; generating online surveys by triangulating standards;issuing online surveys electronically using the processor to transmitthe surveys to external systems via a computer network coupled to theinterface; and receiving online survey responses electronically andscoring the responses, using the processor, to generate performancereports including an assessment of risk potential for each risk eventcategory.
 2. The computer-based system of claim 1, wherein theoperations further include generating projected events based on resultsof statistically processing the historical event data, the event paths,the critical node weighting and the survey results, the projected eventsrepresenting potential risk scenarios derived from the statisticalprocessing results and past event occurrences.
 3. The computer-basedsystem of claim 1, wherein the operations further include continuouslyharvesting event data using a computerized information gathering system.4. The computer-based system of claim 1, wherein the operations furtherinclude calculating, using the processor, an event probability for eachevent that presents a risk.
 5. The computer-based system of claim 1,wherein the operations further include calculating, using the processor,an adjusted threat quotient for each critical node in an event path. 6.The computer-based system of claim 1, wherein the operations furtherinclude calculating, using the processor, an estimate of event sequenceinterruption for each event that presents a risk.
 7. The computer-basedsystem of claim 1, further comprising an interface adapted to transmitperformance reports to a wireless device.
 8. The computer-based systemof claim 1, further comprising an interface adapted to receivesituational information about the complex system, and wherein theoperations further comprise analyzing the received situationalinformation and generating a response based on processing, with theprocessor, the situational information and the event paths, andoutputting the response.
 9. The computer-based system of claim 8,wherein the operations further include outputting the response to adisplay connected to the computer based-system.
 10. The computer-basedsystem of claim 8, wherein the operations further include outputting theresponse to a wireless device.
 11. A computerized method of complexsystem event management, the method comprising: triangulating andweighting risk event categories based on historical event data retrievedfrom a computer data storage; determining and weighting performancecriteria relevant to managing events for an organization; constructingan electronic standards library based on standards retrieved from thecomputer data storage; validating and testing performance criteria;assessing client performance; projecting future events; and generatingevent management response recommendations.
 12. The computerized methodof claim 11, wherein the triangulating and weighting risk eventcategories includes: triangulating available data; populating an eventsdatabase; triangulating categories of risk events; determining weightingcriteria for each risk event category; and weighting and ranking eachrisk event category.
 13. The computerized method of claim 11, whereinthe determining and weighting performance criteria includes: reverseengineering past events; analyzing each event along a risk continuum;triangulating analysis results; determining a weighting rationale;weighting performance criteria of the risk continuum; isolatingindicators and warnings; formulating an intelligence collectionstrategy; and issuing alerts by event category.
 14. The computerizedmethod of claim 11, wherein constructing a standards library includes:triangulating source data to determine minimum compliance standards andbest practices related to each event; comparing compliance standards andbest practices with internally generated performance criteria;identifying and filling any gaps between compliance standards and bestpractices and the performance criteria; determining control questionsadapted for use in online surveys; converting standards data to amodified Delphi format and storing in an electronic database; weightinga risk continuum value of each node along each event path; andestablishing a reporting taxonomy.
 15. The computerized method of claim11, wherein validating and testing performance criteria includesperforming a multi-disciplinary review of data generated in thetriangulating, determining and constructing steps, and testing eventpaths and performance criteria using simulations and real-world testing.16. The computerized method of claim 11, wherein assessing clientperformance includes: inputting performance assessment data; andconducting a performance assessment.
 17. The computerized method ofclaim 11, wherein projecting future events includes: generatingprojected event paths for different categories of risk; reverseengineering projected events; accessing risk continuum analysis;conducting a critical node analysis; weighting critical nodes;determining a relative value of each critical node; and determining awin/lose outcome probability for each category of risk by executing anestimate of event sequence interruption.
 18. The computerized method ofclaim 11, wherein generating event management response recommendationsincludes: developing an event actions library based on performancecriteria and projection of future events; selecting an event actionchecklist based on type of event; determining emergency uniform resourcelocator generation protocol; generating emergency notification calllists; presenting a spatial visualization of event; identifying targetlocation within the spatial visualization; and generating incidentmanagement templates.
 19. A computerized control system for real-timecontrol of events associated with a complex system, the computerizedcontrol system comprising: a processor having an information processingunit and a computer readable medium; a database coupled to theprocessor, the database being adapted to store event risk assessment,projection and control information; a display coupled to the processorand adapted to display event risk assessment, projection and controlinformation generated by the processor; one or more sensors each beingadapted to provide a signal to the processor; one or more actuators eachbeing adapted to receive a control signal from the processor; and aninterface coupled to the processor and adapted to connect the processorto a computer network, the computer readable medium storing instructionsthat, when executed by the processor, cause the processor to performoperations including: identifying, characterizing and assessing riskassociated with the complex system; projecting event paths for eachrisk, each event path having one or more decision points; calculatingadjusted threat quotient values for each decision point along each eventpath; monitoring sensor values; determining whether a risk event is inprogress; and when a risk event is in progress, generating an actionplan for responding to the risk event based on the adjusted threatquotient values.